I have what some would call an addictive personality. Alcohol, cigarettes, gambling, women. If it can be had in access I will have it in access. This is why I have long avoided sports gambling. I love the idea, I’m convinced I would be good at it. But we both know the reality is I would win the first time I tried it, then spend the rest of my life trying to hide the amount of money I’m losing from friends and family.

But I’m different man now than I was when I wrote that paragraph two seconds ago. I drink less, I smoke never, I gamble rarely, and women have decided to handle that particular addiction of mine themselves. So let’s take a look at some NFL lines. All lines come from Sportsbook.com as of Friday.

PACKERS -11 over Bears

I bet against my team once this year and I felt incredibly dirty. I’ll not again, especially against the bears. I think Packers are really good team and like the addition of a run game and I’m fan which makes me irrational. Plus the Bears are not good. You may be wondering why I opened with the Monday night game. No reason, other than so I could transition into a…

Commercial Break(down)

• Look there was no way I wasn’t going to get to the quarterback of my favorite team’s awful commercials.
• One might wonder why Aaron Rodgers is just now finding his seat, even though the plane is in mid flight. One may also wonder why he is not flying first class. Finally one may wonder why two overweight friends bought two tickets to fly together but didn’t get neighboring seats. State Farm does not care for your frivolous questions.
• SERIOUSLY THE PLAIN IS IN MID FLIGHT. What the hell was Aaron Rodgers doing? Visiting the pilot? Flirting with a flight attendant? Getting high in the bathroom?
• One of the Bear’s fans is reading Ditka Quarterly. I have watched Ditka on ESPN’s Monday Night Countdown. You could not pay me enough to read a magazine he has any input in.
• They are avid bears fans and they only know Aaron Rodgers as the guy from State Farm commercials. The State Farm alternate universe is fucking weird.
• I like that they thank him for saving them money. Like he sold them the policy. Not the agent who found their extra deductibles. They thank Aaron Rodgers.
• By the way the other fan was reading Bratwurst Aficionado. Obvious stereotype joke or…
• FORESHADOWING!!! They upgraded to Grill Class!! In all seriousness, given how paranoid people are of air travel I’m amazed that State Farm was allowed to film a scene featuring smoke in an airplane. Also this would smell terrible, and the other passengers would riot and throw these two off the plane.
• Little known fact, the cheesehead stalker is not paid by State Farm and is in fact an actual stalker. If you have seen him please call your local authorities as he is wanted for quesioning.

Back to the picks

Falcons +8 over PANTHERS

I actually think the Panthers are pretty decent team. They have a good defense, run the ball well, and Cam Newton is having a good season. But they’re style of play results in a lot of close games. The Falcons will probably lose this game, but I lean more towards a 21-17 affair.

COWBOYS -10.5 over Vikings

I don’t feel very confident about this pick. The Cowboys are the classic “play to the level of their competition” team. But I don’t think there are enough points available to convince me to lay money on the three headed monster that is Christian Ponder, Matt Cassell and Josh Freeman.

Saints -7 over JETS

Remember when I picked the Saints to trounce the Dolphins back in week 4 and I looked like a genius? Of course you don’t because that happened in an email thread that you are not a part of. Don’t you feel left out! The Jets look good against bad teams and the Patriots¹ but I think the Saints are best team in football. I love Drew Brees, I love Jimmy Graham, and I own about 67 Saints players in Fantasy. And you should never bet against my fantasy skills.

Titans -3 over RAMS

Did I miss something? Did Sam Bradford’s ACL miraculously heal itself? Zac Stacy is great, even though he looks like a Minecraft character. But Tennessee is a decent team who gets Jake Locker back.² Remember I wrote that when Locker has 3 picks and the Titans lose by 17

BILLS +4 over Chiefs

I have no idea who is starting at quarterback for the Bills and I don’t care enough to open a new tab on my browser and type “Bill’s quarterback into Bing.” The Chiefs have dominated the Jaguars and that’s about it. I like the Bill’s defense, I like the points even more.

Chargers -1 over WASHINGTON PROFESSIONAL FOOTBALL TEAM

Here’s some hard hitting analysis, I think the Chargers are better at football than Washington. Therefore I am picking them to win by more than one (1!) point.

RAIDERS -3 over Eagles

At the end of every fantasy football season I say to myself “no more Michael Vick.” Then every year there he is, late in the draft, calling out. And so I sail my fantasy ship straight into the siren’s rocks, misled by an impressive week one. Do not draft Michael Vick, and do not bet on a banged up, questionable Michael Vick led team that features Nick Foles and Matt Barkley as backups. (I own Terrell Pryor in another league, so maybe just avoid this game altogether.)

SEAHAWKS +16 over Buccaneers

Look this is simple. Always bet on the Seahawks at home. Always bet against the Seahawks on the road.

BROWNS +2.5 over Ravens.

I’ve never been a Joe Flacco fan. I’ve always been a Josh Campbell fan. The Browns have a good defense, Jordan Cameron and Josh Gordon and Joe Haden. The Ravens have Tory Holt and the artist formerly known as Ray Rice. I’ll take the points.

PATRIOTS -7 over Steelers

I’m not saying the Patriots are good. I think they’re a mediocre team in a week division. But the Steelers are terrible. They won a couple of games. They are still terrible. They will finish with 4 or 5 wins. I do not bet on 4 or 5 win teams.

Colts -3 over TEXANS

If this line were 7 then I might have taken the Texans. I’m excited for the Case Keenum era, if only because I have never hear a more fitting name for a quarterback of team named the Texans. But the Colts are a much better team and 3 is not a lot of points.